CFA Level 2 Free Practice Test

. The primary reason for crash risks is related to the fact that carry trades are leveraged: The low-yield currency is borrowed, with proceeds invested in the high-yield currency. The leverage magnifies the effect of losses and gains relative to the investors’ equity base. In low-volatility markets, investors can become complacent and allow positions to grow large in a search for yield. This crowded positioning tends to unwind rapidly when a market shock occurs because many traders try to exit their positions almost simultaneously before the leverage effects wipe out their equity. Stop-loss orders are triggered, and given the market uncertainty, there is a flight to safety that further increases demand for the low-yield currency.
. Another factor that accelerates selling is that traders often have stop-loss orders in place that are triggered when price declines reach a certain level. This can lead to cascades of selling in which position liquidation begets further position liquidation.
. During periods of market turmoil, there is generally a flight to safety into assets and currencies that seem to offer the most protection during times of uncer- tainty—typically low interest rate currencies.

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1 Drawbridge sold AUD 5 million forward to the settlement date at an all-in forward price of 0.8940 (USD/AUD).
2 To mark the position to market, Drawbridge offsets the forward transaction by buying AUD 5 million three months forward to the settlement date.
3 For the offsetting forward contract, because the AUD is the base currency in the USD/AUD quote, buying AUD forward means paying the offer for both the spot rate and forward points.
I. The all-in three-month forward rate is calculated as 0.9066 – 0.00364 = 0.90296
II. This gives a net cash flow on settlement day of 5,000,000 × (0.8940 – 0.90296) = –USD44,800 (This is a cash outflow because Drawbridge sold the AUD for- ward and the AUD appreciated against the USD).
4 To determine the mark-to-market value of the original forward position, calculate the present value of the USD cash outflow using the three-month USD discount rate: –USD44,8000/[1 + 0.0023(90/360)] = –USD44,774.
. The present value of the cash flow was not calculated (step 4 of
calculation).
. The cash flow was calculated using the bid rate instead of the offer rate.
1 The all-in three-month forward rate = 0.9062 – 0.00368 = 0.90252
2 This gives a net cash flow on settlement day of 5,000,000 × (0.8940 – 0.90252) = – USD42,600, and the present value is calculated as –USD42,600/[1 + 0.0023(90/360)] = –USD42,576.

. A reduced form model requires that one of the company’s liabilities trade; it can be a zero-coupon bond or an estimation of zero-coupon bonds from observable risky coupon bond prices that trade. In addition, the company’s default prospects are dependent on macroeconomic state variables. These explanatory variables can include such inputs as the growth rate of GDP and the level of unemployment. The model also requires a risk-free rate.
because a reduced form model requires that the state of the economy can be described as a vector of macroeconomic state variables. because a reduced form model requires that some of the company’s debt trades, either a zero-coupon or coupon bond.

There is a direct relationship, not an indirect one, between estimated poten- tial GDP growth and credit quality: Higher growth leads to higher quality—that is, an improvement in the likelihood of promised cash flows occurring.
Gillibrand’s statement is accurate. In the long run, the growth rate of GDP dominates. The ratio of earnings to GDP can neither rise nor decline forever, so over the long term it must approximate zero. Similarly, the P/E ratio cannot grow or contract forever, so over the long term it must also approximate zero. Thus, the drivers of potential GDP are ultimately the drivers of stock market performance. Navarro’s statement is accurate. The growth rate of potential GDP is an important determinant of the level of real interest rates, and thus real asset returns in general, in the economy. Faster growth in potential GDP means consumers expect their real income to rise more rapidly. Thus, higher rates of potential GDP growth translate into higher real interest rates and higher expected real asset returns in general.

Initial market reaction is an important barometer for the value investors place on the gains from merging as well as an indication of future returns.
A spin-off does not generate cash for the parent company.
The more of the merger that is paid for by stock, the more that the risks and benefits of realizing these synergies (assuming they really exist) will be passed on to the target shareholders—hence a lower benefit will result if more stock is used.